Posts by Kirill Zagalsky

A Divided Fed

The Federal Reserve elected to cut interest rates again by 25-basis points at the conclusion of its meeting this week. The committee voted in favor of the cut by a margin of 7-3. The split may have been more than markets anticipated, and the Fed’s commentary was deemed to be not so easy when it comes to monetary policy. 7 of 17 FOMC members expect just one more rate cut this year. The not so dovish meeting sent stocks lower initially before they recovered. The... Continue Reading

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Recession With or Without A Deal

The ongoing U.S./China trade war has had a significant impact on the economies of both countries. The war on trade has seen several stages of escalation in recent months, and thus far, the two aides still appear to be quite far apart when it comes to making some type of long-term agreement. Talks are set to resume next month, and that news has stock markets moving higher as risk aversion abates. Some key economic indicators have already begun showing some significant cracks. Recent manufacturing data,... Continue Reading

Rapid Inflation Could Be Next

There has been no shortage of issues for global financial markets to contend with in recent months. An aging economic expansion and equity bull market, an accelerating global economic slowdown and the ongoing U.S./China trade war have been at the center of attention. At some point, the economic expansion and bull market in stocks will have run its course, as they always do. Likewise, the war on trade may not go on indefinitely, as it is in the best interest of both sides to come... Continue Reading

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Don’t Wait Any Longer

In early action on Tuesday, the gold market is once again on the offensive and moving higher. As the Dow Jones Industrial Average see a drop of nearly 400 points, the yellow metal is up nearly $15 per-ounce. A test of resistance in the $1600 region looks very likely in the sessions ahead. With stocks potentially on the verge of a major meltdown and gold potentially headed back to all-time highs or beyond, you simply cannot afford to wait any longer. The time to start... Continue Reading

Markets Can’t Have Cake and Eat it Too

The phrase “have your cake and eat it too” is commonly used to describe a situation in which people want the best of both worlds, or perhaps want to have two or more things that are incompatible. It can also be used to describe when people want more than what might be considered reasonable. The phrase simply alludes to the fact that you cannot have your cake and eat it too. Once you have eaten the cake, you can no longer have it. This is... Continue Reading

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Central Banks Are Still Buying

The recent central bank buying spree looks set to continue. It was reported that Russia’s central bank purchased another 300,000 ounces of gold in July after topping the $100 billion reserve level the month before. The latest figures reportedly show Russia’s gold reserves now stand at nearly 20 percent of its total reserves. The nation has purchased nearly 3.5 million ounces so far this year and has been a consistent buyer on a monthly basis. Russia’s gold reserves have now increased nearly 10-fold over the... Continue Reading

Has the Next Race to the Bottom Begun?

There is certainly no shortage of complex issues plaguing global financial markets currently. The ongoing U.S./China trade war and recent unrest in Hong Kong have fueled a sharp rise in market volatility in recent sessions, and that volatility expansion could potentially be indicative of a long-term topping process in stocks. Has the next race to the bottom begun? Global central banks appear willing to ride to the rescue once again, however, and could take significant measures to combat the accelerating global economic slowdown. The U.S.... Continue Reading

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The Case for Gold Has Never Been Stronger

The last few days have shown what can happen as investors get nervous and even start to panic. Yesterday’s declines in equity markets, which were over 3 percent, were the largest drop so far this year and showed just how seriously investors are taking the ongoing U.S./China trade war. the case for gold has never been stronger. As President Trump implements additional 10 percent tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods, China has responded by devaluing its currency. The yuan moved past the key... Continue Reading

Could the Fed Reserve Cut Mark the Top for Stocks?

The Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds rate today by 25-basis points in a move that was widely expected. Markets had been increasing calls for a rate cut from the central bank, and President Trump has made it no secret he thinks the Fed is on the wrong track and wants lower rates. Over the last nine years, markets have become increasingly accustomed to the Fed or other central banks riding to the rescue at any sign of market volatility or significant risk aversion. Central... Continue Reading

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A Lot Going On

Stocks have been on the rise in recent days as investors look forward to a rate cut by the Fed at the end of the month. Although expectations for a 50-basis point cut have declined significantly, such a move may still be on the table. If the Fed decides to cut by 25-basis points, that cut could be just the first in a series of cuts the Fed may have to make in the months ahead. Regardless of what the Fed does or doesn’t do,... Continue Reading