Posts by Kirill Zagalsky

How About 55% Declines for Stocks?

Love him or hate him, President Trump has accomplished a great deal in his first two years in office. Stocks are near record highs, unemployment is near a 50-year low and the economy is seeing real growth. Trump, who has never been one to shy away from voicing his opinions, and he recently tweeted: ‘Had the opposition party (no, not the Media) won the election, the Stock Market would be down at least 10,000 points by now. We are heading up, up, up!’ – President... Continue Reading

Does the Fed Have Any Credibility Left?

The Federal Reserve has demonstrated that it is incapable of weaning the stock market off Fed-stimulus. This begs the question of whether the central bank has any credibility left as an inflation fighter and independent institution. The central bank began “treating” the market years ago. The Federal Reserve began with an initial round of QE, and when that didn’t work, it proceeded to provide additional injections in the form of QE2 and later QE3. Even that wasn’t enough, and the Fed was also forced to... Continue Reading

Could Another Round of QE be in the Cards?

Markets have been wrestling with numerous issues in recent months. The ongoing war on trade, rising interest rates, Brexit, the continuing government shutdown and other geopolitical concerns to name a few. During that time, stock markets have come under pressure and recently flirted with bear market territory. A sharp rise in volatility didn’t help matters either, and investors have been left wondering if a market top has been reached. Much has been made of the mixed messages from the Fed. Not long ago, Fed chief... Continue Reading

What Can the Fed Do?

The Federal Reserve has been the topic of considerable debate in recent months. The central bank has continued its course towards policy normalization over the last couple years but has recently run into a brick wall. The Fed has hiked several times over the last year, drawing the ire of numerous analysts and even the President of the United States. The central bank recently followed through on its plan for another 25-bps rate hike in December. The recent release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes,... Continue Reading

Risk is to the Upside

When it comes to managing investments, risk management is everything. Knowing the potential risk on any position is imperative to success. Risk is not always to the downside, however, and oftentimes markets will exhibit behavior that warrants upside risk. The gold market may currently be displaying such upside risk. After spending much of 2018 probing the recent lows, the selling pressure eventually began to run dry. Try and try as they might, the bears were simply unable to push prices to significant new lows. In... Continue Reading

Get Ready for Some Serious Bumps

The markets are ending the year on what can only be called a sour note. Stocks are either in or on the verge of entering bear market territory and the potential downside could be just getting started. Measures of market volatility are also highly elevated and could potentially be indicative of further selling pressure in the months ahead. The potential risks facing the economy and global stock markets are immense. The ongoing war over trade, the potential fallout from a hard “Brexit,” higher interest rates... Continue Reading

Make a Plan

As the year comes to a close, there is no better time to begin thinking about and planning for next year. Significant changes in the global economy and market dynamics necessitate that investors take an objective look at their portfolios to determine how to try to stay a step ahead. Given the current economic and geopolitical backdrop, there as perhaps never been a more important time to have a significant allocation in hard, physical assets like gold. If you are thinking about making some changes... Continue Reading

Fed Hikes Rates by a Quarter-Point

The highly anticipated Fed meeting on monetary policy has concluded with the central bank electing to hike rates by 25 basis points. The quarter-point hike was not unsuspected and investors will likely be far more concerned with the central bank’s commentary about its plans for next year. The Fed voted unanimously to hike rates today, while it lowered rate hike expectations for next year down to two from three. The Fed also lowered its longer-term estimate of the Fed Funds rate to 2.8% from 3%... Continue Reading

The Ultimate Safe Haven

The markets have seen increasing volatility in recent weeks as rates move higher and as stocks decline. Recent market volatility could, however, be just a drop in the bucket of what could be seen as the New Year gets underway. Investors have numerous issues to contend with and a great deal of uncertainty about what the Fed may or may not do with monetary policy. The potential for an ongoing trade war with China, the ongoing issues in U.S. politics, Brexit and more could all... Continue Reading

Now is the time to buy dips

The gold market was quiet in trading today yet gave up little ground as the metal backs off recent highs. The market is just below key resistance at the October highs in the $1252 area and could be gearing up to punch through that level to the upside. Stocks, on the other hand, continue to see increasing volatility and declines. Recent price action in stocks could simply be a drop in the bucket of further declines that could take place in the weeks and months... Continue Reading