The Dollar Rally Won’t Last

The Dollar Index has been on a tear in recent weeks, gaining considerable ground against the euro and other currencies. Although the currency is not the primary catalyst for changes in the price of gold and other hard assets, it does have a major influence on commodities and assets that are denominated in dollars. Some analysts have suggested that recent dollar strength has been behind some moderate weakness in gold. While that may be true, to an extent, the rally in the greenback is likely... Continue Reading

Dips are the Best Time to Buy

The best time to buy an asset is when it is on sale. Given the recent 2% decline in the price of gold, current levels could fall into that category. Short-term dips in the price of gold should not be feared, but should be welcomed. This is a great opportunity buy gold at a lower price point. There are those that will argue that an asset should not be bought on weakness, but should rather be purchased when it is showing strength. This is a... Continue Reading

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3 Reasons to Consider Exiting Stocks Now

The stock market seems to keep going and going. The market has had little, if any, in the way of major pullbacks or retracements since the current bull market began about a decade ago. The market seems unable to go significantly lower, and the current level of bullishness borders on the dangerous. Price action like that has been seen in recent months has a tendency to suck investors into the market-especially those that have been waiting for that big “pullback” to get long. As these... Continue Reading

Is a Big Drop on the Way?

Stocks have been moving higher for the better part of a decade now. It is noteworthy that during the recent bull run, the market has seen very little in terms of serious or protracted corrections. Stronger economic data, more jobs and higher wages have all recently fueled the market’s ongoing upside, but at some point, the stock bulls will run out of ammunition. In fact, the economy is becoming overdue for its next recession, and it is also not clear just how long the recent... Continue Reading

Why Investors Must Watch the Dollar

After seeing months of lower prices, the dollar index has been on the rebound lately, trading at a 4.5 month high in recent sessions. The upside in the dollar has kept a bit of a lid on gold prices-for now anyway-and the relationship between the metal and the currency is a very important one to understand. Like many other commodities, gold is denominated in dollars. This means that when the dollar is higher in value, gold becomes relatively more expensive for buyers in other currencies.... Continue Reading

Why You Should Be Watching Oil

The crude oil market has been working its way back higher for some time now. Nymex crude is trading for over $70 per barrel, the highest level since 2014. Brent crude has its eyes on the $76 level. The oil trade could, however, see some exploding volatility in the days and weeks ahead. President Trump has announced that he will make a decision on the Iran nuclear deal made in 2015 this week. Although many have urged the President to remain in the deal, the... Continue Reading

Is Inflation Becoming a Cause for Concern?

At the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s two day meeting on Wednesday afternoon, the central bank kept rates at current levels in a move that was expected. The central bank did, however, take note of rising prices and said it now expects inflation to run near its 2% target “over the medium term.” The central bank’s commentary will be very closely scrutinized by investors, and at first glance appears to contain a more hawkish tone. The Fed could in fact be setting the stage to... Continue Reading

Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

Inflation has been a topic of discussion for some time now as the Fed seeks to normalize monetary policy. The Commerce Department reported today that the PCE (personal consumption expenditures price index) jumped to 2% year-over-year in March. That 2% is the Fed’s desired annual target for inflation. Inflation is gaining further traction due to a tightening labor market as well as recent tax cuts that are providing economic stimulus. Just last week, the government reported that wages and salaries saw their biggest increase in... Continue Reading

Don’t Let Dollar Strength Fool You

Some commodities have come under pressure in recent days as the dollar index has been rallying from recent lows. As a dollar-denominated commodity, gold has been seeing some selling pressure as the greenback has moved higher. Don’t be fooled. The dollar is still very much in a long-term downtrend. In fact, the value of the currency has been declining for decades, and further declines will be seen in the decades ahead. Throughout history, fiat currencies have shown a tendency to fail, and with good reason.... Continue Reading

Has the Tipping Point Finally Arrived?

Stocks have seen some pressure in recent days, as more and more investors believe that the bear market in bonds has finally run its course. With the 10 year note yield currently right around the 3% level, investors seem to be getting increasingly anxious. The 3% level in yields represents an important psychological barrier that, if broken, could see a sharp and rapid rise even higher in rates. Some analysts have already hiked their year-end predictions for the benchmark 10 year note, calling for yields... Continue Reading