Posts On Economic and Geopolitical News

War on Trade Could Force the Fed’s Hand

Not long ago, the Federal reserve had taken a decidedly hawkish approach towards monetary policy. The Fed seemed confident in the economy and was ready to continue the current cycle of interest rate hikes. Market dynamics have shifted significantly in recent months; however, and thus the Fed may be forced to reverse course and start cutting rates again. The market has already priced in a 25-basis point hike by the end of the year. With the latest Fed meeting minutes looming this afternoon, the question... Continue Reading

The Only True Safe Haven

Just because the gold market has had limited upside in recent months does not mean that investors won’t turn to the metal if things get dicey. The ongoing U.S./China trade war has taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks, and the war over trade could potentially take much longer to resolve than previously anticipated. Last week, Both sides pushed away from the negotiating table. The U.S. raised tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent. China, as expected,... Continue Reading

Three Reasons Another Recession is Inevitable

Some analysts in recent months have suggested that the U.S. could be headed for another recession. The ongoing U.S./China trade war, fading effects from tax cuts and government spending and an aging expansion are just a few of the reasons cited. Other analysts have suggested that recent economic weakness and market declines are normal and simply some bumps in the road. Whether the next recession hits this year, next or in the next few years, it will arrive. Here are three simple reasons that a... Continue Reading

Active Buyers Follow the Money

According to a recent report from Financial Times, the People’s Bank of China has continued to add gold to its reserves for the fifth month in a row. The central bank reportedly added 480,000 ounces last month bringing its total holdings to $78.3 billion. China hasn’t been the only buyer of the metal either. Numerous emerging market central banks have been active buyers as nations seek to diversify their reserves away from the dollar. Last year, central banks reportedly bought some $27 billion worth of... Continue Reading

A Prime Example- Volatility Spike

Over the weekend: President Trump alluded to a breakdown in ongoing U.S./China trade negotiations. The U.S. is now set to impose further tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, taking the current rate of 10 percent up to 25 percent. Talks were scheduled to continue this week in Washington, although it is now unclear if scheduled meetings will take place. Markets are on edge over the news, as stocks had seemingly priced in a deal being done in the coming weeks. Volatility Spike: Today, the... Continue Reading

Economy Looks Strong, But Looks Can Be Deceiving

Despite some recent bumps in the road, the economy has likely appeared to be fairly strong to the average onlooker. Looks can be deceiving, however, and perhaps the economy is not quite as strong as many have been led to believe. Look to the Experts Although there are many critics out there, some opinions may potentially carry more weight than others. When a former Fed Chairman speaks, it might be wise to listen. According to a recent article from MarketWatch, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan... Continue Reading

Surprise, Surprise… The Fed Is Stuck

Wednesday afternoon brought the release of the latest Fed meeting minutes. The minutes detailed what some analysts already knew: The central bank is on hold for the rest of the year and will not raise rates further. The Central Bank Is on Hold for 2019 Numerous Issues Cited by the Fed The Fed cited numerous issues that weighed in its decision: A general unease over the U.S. and global economies, the ongoing trade war with China, a lack of inflation and a messy Brexit. Fed... Continue Reading

Does the Fed’s About Face Mean QE4 Is in the Cards?

Could quantitative easing be in our future? QE4 could be just around the corner… The notion of a global slowdown has been widely covered by the financial media in recent months. Weakness in key areas such as manufacturing has been seen in both China and the U.S. The Eurozone is seeing its own struggles as well, with Italy already in recession and Germany perhaps on its way. The slowing global economy has led the U.S. Fed to do a major about-face in recent weeks. It... Continue Reading

Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact

Stock markets have recently put together an impressive string of gains that has taken the benchmark S&P 500 above previous resistance. Stocks could potentially be headed for an attempt at fresh all-time highs as volatility continues to decline. And why shouldn’t they? The Fed has become increasingly dovish; a U.S./China trade deal may be getting close, and jobless claims are at the lowest level in 50 years. Against this positive backdrop for stocks, however, lurk a number of issues that could derail risk assets in... Continue Reading

Negative Yields on the Rise

The German Government bond recently sank back below the 0% threshold for the first time since 2016. The decline in yields is part of an overall trend as investors become increasingly skittish about the prospects for the global economy. According to a recent article from MarketWatch, “the total sum of negative-yielding debt in bond issues represented in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index stood at nearly $9.7 trillion, marking a more than 50% increase from September.” The recent decline in German bond yields put... Continue Reading