Posts On Economic and Geopolitical News

The Week Ahead

The gold market is off to a slow start this week as stocks and risk assets see a heavier bid as the new trading week gets going. Although the news and headlines may sound a bit rosier today, for the most part the news simply appears to be more of the same that has driven equity markets for several months now. Over the weekend, China released a document that in part discussed the importance of intellectual property rights. The report also noted that those rights... Continue Reading

Heard This Before

U.S. stocks are moderately higher in early Monday action to kick off the new trading week. Positive trade developments have been tagged as the primary catalyst for stronger equity markets this morning. Over the weekend, China reportedly released a document that discussed one of the major sticking points of trade talks-intellectual property rights-and called for more protection of those rights. In addition to that, comments from U.S. national security adviser Robert O’Brien also may be playing played a role. O’Brien reportedly stated that a phase... Continue Reading

Trade Talks Maybe Not Going So Well?

Wall St. has seen major stock indexes make fresh all-tine highs recently. Stocks have pulled back a bit in recent trade, however, and are lower again today. The primary reason for the lack of upside follow through could be a lack of progress in U.S./China trade negotiations. Recent headlines on trade have taken a slightly more mixed tone, while ongoing unrest in Hong Kong could also potentially upset things further The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday passed two bills that may have upset Beijing.... Continue Reading

Another Blow for the Dollar

The dollar is getting dumped by one of the globe’s largest oil producers and exporters. Russia’s Rosneft has decided that it will ditch the dollar in favor of euros for all deals going forward. The switch could potentially limit the effects of any sanctions imposed by the U.S. The company is Russia’s largest oil company, exporting some 120 million tons per year. The company’s move to euros is likely a direct response to threats of U.S. sanctions for its re-selling of Venezuela’s oil to Asian... Continue Reading

It’ll Keep Going

Recent pieces of key economic data have not painted a rosy picture. ISM manufacturing and services data have both shown significant declines, and the global financial market is now getting increasingly worried about the prospects for a recession in the U.S. Markets are now pricing in another Fed rate cut this month, and the central bank could even allude to further cuts if the data does not rebound. Although the risks of recession do appear to be on the rise, the next major recession could... Continue Reading

Manufacturing is Not Looking Good

Stocks are sharply lower today as another key piece of economic data shows significant weakness. The latest reading of the ISM Manufacturing is not looking good. It showed a drop to 47.8% from a reading last month of 49.1%. This reading marks the lowest level since June 2009, when the Great Recession ended. Consensus estimates were looking for a reading of 50.2%. The decline in activity is significant. Readings above 50 show expansion while readings below 50 show contraction. Only three of 18 sectors tracked... Continue Reading

No Shortage of Bullish Catalysts

The gold market has shown some significant upside in recent months, and with good reason. There are a variety of issues currently working in gold’s favor, and a strong fundamental and technical backdrop could keep the metal on the offensive. Regardless of whether the Fed cuts rates further or how much, the current state of the global economy and geopolitical landscape could be supportive for the metal and other hard assets. Here are three issues that may make now the ideal time to build a... Continue Reading

Just Another Reason

The current economic and geopolitical landscape is filled with potential landmines, and the climate just got even more tedious. Over the weekend, an attack on Saudi oil facilities reportedly cut production by some 5.7 million barrels per day, or over half of the Kingdom’s production. This amount accounts for about five percent of total global oil supply and could send crude oil prices soaring. Brent crude jumped by about 20 percent after the news, while WTI also made a significant double-digit leap. Thus far, it... Continue Reading

Recession With or Without A Deal

The ongoing U.S./China trade war has had a significant impact on the economies of both countries. The war on trade has seen several stages of escalation in recent months, and thus far, the two aides still appear to be quite far apart when it comes to making some type of long-term agreement. Talks are set to resume next month, and that news has stock markets moving higher as risk aversion abates. Some key economic indicators have already begun showing some significant cracks. Recent manufacturing data,... Continue Reading

Is a Major Currency Debasement Ahead?

The U.S. Fed and other global central banks are in the process of easing monetary policies again. Although interest rates got nowhere near previous levels during the Fed’s recent tightening cycle, the central bank has decided that it is time to start cutting again. The Fed is not cutting from only 2.5% instead of 5.5%, however. The ECB tomorrow will present its latest plans to boost the region’s economy which will likely include a bazooka of rate cuts and fresh QE. Other central banks are... Continue Reading