Posts On Market Update

Rate Hike Boo-Hoo

Talk of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve has largely dominated the financial media for some time now, and recent hawkish commentary from several Fed officials has markets on edge. The Fed will meet again on September 21st, and investors will be paying close attention. For now, Fed Funds futures are pricing in about a 24 percent chance of a hike this month, while those same contracts are currently predicting a 58 percent chance of a hike in December. The real question is: Does... Continue Reading

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Jobs Data Disappoints

Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor released its Employment Situation report for the month of August. According to the report, the U.S. added 151,000 jobs in August, well below consensus estimates of 175,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 percent. While the addition of 151,000 jobs might sound pretty solid when taken at face value, the number was a clear miss and may drive a shift in interest rate expectations. The week before last, the rhetoric coming out of the Fed symposium... Continue Reading

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The Jackson Hole Buy

Gold and silver have been under some decent selling pressure in recent sessions. The selling seen in these markets could, in our view, be primarily attributed to low summer trading volumes and some position squaring ahead of the Fed symposium this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The question on everyone’s mind appears to be: Will The Fed allude to an imminent interest rate hike? We don’t know the answer to this question any better than you do. What we do know, however, is that it... Continue Reading

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Welcome Lower Prices With Open Arms

Gold saw some decent selling pressure to end last week’s trading, with spot prices falling by nearly two percent. Friday’s non-farm payrolls data was the primary culprit, as the report showed the U.S. added 255,000 jobs last month-well above consensus estimates of 180,000 jobs. The unemployment rate moved a tad higher, but that may simply be attributed to an increase in the labor participation rate. Combined with positive revisions for both May and June, the jobs data was described by analysts as “stellar, strong and... Continue Reading

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Gold Poised for More Gains

  The gold market is showing some significant signs of strength recently that cannot be denied. Price action on Friday was indicative of the significant underlying strength currently being seen in gold ­ and with good reason. Following the Employment Situation report for June, which showed non­farm payrolls adding an additional 287,000 jobs, gold saw some decent selling. That selling, however, was quickly met by willing buyers who happily scooped up gold on the dip. By late afternoon, gold was in positive territory for the... Continue Reading

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Lower Rates for Longer?

Heading into the June FOMC meeting, investors were primarily focused on whether or not the Fed would hike rates again. Following the dismal May jobs report, the likelihood of a June hike declined significantly and the central bank did, in fact, remain on hold. The question then became: Would the Fed hike in July or possibly September? Things can change quickly in global financial markets and this past week investors have seen a great example of just how quickly things can head south. The aftermath... Continue Reading

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A Storm on the Horizon

The equity bull market that began in 2008 has been dubbed the most hated bull market in history by some. The run higher in equities over the last several years did, indeed, leave many scratching their heads. While many equity investors have enjoyed some strong returns during this period, there are ominous signs pointing to the possible end of the party. Consider current interest rates and bond yields. Since getting off to a terrible start to 2016, stocks have come roaring back in the last... Continue Reading

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Market Timing and the Gold Market

Many investors attempt to “time the market.” What do we mean by this? We mean to say that many people look to outperform the market by trying to time buying and selling decisions based on various factors such as economic forecasts, valuation studies, or technical analysis. While those that can do this successfully on a consistent basis may enjoy significant financial rewards, the reality is that very few investors are able to achieve any consistency. In fact, looking at mutual funds is a great example.... Continue Reading

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Just How Much Gold is There?

As a natural resource, gold’s value is largely determined by supply and demand. The fact is there is only so much minable gold on the planet and eventually supplies could run out. What does this mean for investors? It means get your hands on some gold now while you still can. Some estimates put the amount of gold available today at approximately 171,000 tons. What would this look like? Well, imagine a pile of gold covering a standard size tennis court that is 10 feet... Continue Reading

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Gold and the Presidential Cycle

According to the theory of the Presidential election cycle, U.S. stocks experience weakness in the year after the election. The cycle then may revert back to stronger equities until it is time for the next election. What may drive initial weakness in equities followed by a rebound? The answer is reforms, new policies and a degree of uncertainty. Think about it this way: When a newly elected President takes office, he or she may look to deliver on plans discussed on the campaign trail, even... Continue Reading

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