Posts On Market Update

A Prime Example- Volatility Spike

Over the weekend: President Trump alluded to a breakdown in ongoing U.S./China trade negotiations. The U.S. is now set to impose further tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, taking the current rate of 10 percent up to 25 percent. Talks were scheduled to continue this week in Washington, although it is now unclear if scheduled meetings will take place. Markets are on edge over the news, as stocks had seemingly priced in a deal being done in the coming weeks. Volatility Spike: Today, the... Continue Reading

Key Divergences Point to Higher Gold

Following some recent declines, the gold market has not accomplished much thus far in 2019. Although many of the so-called “experts” may pounce on this fact, we see it as a significant positive for the market. Not only is it a positive, but it could potentially be indicative of a major rally on the horizon. Here’s why we can count on gold resilience: Gold has endured a stronger dollar: Typically, the dollar and gold have a negative correlation. That is to say that when the... Continue Reading

Has the Dollar Peaked?

The stronger dollar has likely been a major factor in gold’s lack of upside follow-through in recent months. The currency hit its highest level of the year last week but is seeing a mild pullback today in early action. The greenback’s strength is not really all that surprising – it has benefitted from concerns over global growth and interest rate differentials. The Dollar Is Near a Top… The dollar may be at or near a top, however, and could soon see a significant price reversal.... Continue Reading

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Why the Dollar Is Overvalued

The U.S. dollar has been on the stronger side of the ledger in recent months. There are numerous factors at work that have kept the greenback moving higher, including strong U.S.  economic data and weakness in other regions. Creeping Weakness Affecting the Dollar Recent months have seen some significant weakness creep into the U.S. data stream, however, and China has been reporting some serious weakness of its own. The dollar has likely enjoyed the benefits of weaker growth in emerging markets and the fear of... Continue Reading

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It’s a Classic Bull Trap

Stocks have again found their winning ways in recent weeks but it’s likely all a classic bull trap… After a rough end to 2018, the markets have been moving higher even as a U.S./China trade deal remains elusive. The benchmark S&P 500 is once again challenging resistance around the 2800 level, and some investors are hopeful that the market will stage an upside breakout and embark on a fresh leg higher into a new all-time high territory. However, investors may be very disappointed if the... Continue Reading

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Rate Hike Boo-Hoo

Talk of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve has largely dominated the financial media for some time now, and recent hawkish commentary from several Fed officials has markets on edge. The Fed will meet again on September 21st, and investors will be paying close attention. For now, Fed Funds futures are pricing in about a 24 percent chance of a hike this month, while those same contracts are currently predicting a 58 percent chance of a hike in December. The real question is: Does... Continue Reading

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Jobs Data Disappoints

Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor released its Employment Situation report for the month of August. According to the report, the U.S. added 151,000 jobs in August, well below consensus estimates of 175,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 percent. While the addition of 151,000 jobs might sound pretty solid when taken at face value, the number was a clear miss and may drive a shift in interest rate expectations. The week before last, the rhetoric coming out of the Fed symposium... Continue Reading

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The Jackson Hole Buy

Gold and silver have been under some decent selling pressure in recent sessions. The selling seen in these markets could, in our view, be primarily attributed to low summer trading volumes and some position squaring ahead of the Fed symposium this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The question on everyone’s mind appears to be: Will The Fed allude to an imminent interest rate hike? We don’t know the answer to this question any better than you do. What we do know, however, is that it... Continue Reading

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Welcome Lower Prices With Open Arms

Gold saw some decent selling pressure to end last week’s trading, with spot prices falling by nearly two percent. Friday’s non-farm payrolls data was the primary culprit, as the report showed the U.S. added 255,000 jobs last month-well above consensus estimates of 180,000 jobs. The unemployment rate moved a tad higher, but that may simply be attributed to an increase in the labor participation rate. Combined with positive revisions for both May and June, the jobs data was described by analysts as “stellar, strong and... Continue Reading

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Gold Poised for More Gains

  The gold market is showing some significant signs of strength recently that cannot be denied. Price action on Friday was indicative of the significant underlying strength currently being seen in gold ­ and with good reason. Following the Employment Situation report for June, which showed non­farm payrolls adding an additional 287,000 jobs, gold saw some decent selling. That selling, however, was quickly met by willing buyers who happily scooped up gold on the dip. By late afternoon, gold was in positive territory for the... Continue Reading

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