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Has the Dollar Gotten Ahead of Itself?

The latest meeting of the FOMC has now come and gone. As expected, the Fed continued on its recent course of policy normalization, hiking the Fed Funds rate by another 25 basis points. The central bank still expects to hike rates again before the end of the year, likely in December. There were some key changes in the policy statement, with the central bank electing to drop the term “accommodative” from its statement. Rate expectations going forward also changed as well, and it seems overall... Continue Reading

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Time to Take What You Can and Run?

Stocks are sharply lower in early trade on Wednesday, as concerns over Turkey and possible contagion risks continue to fuel risk aversion. Investors also remain concerned about the ongoing war over trade and the potential for further escalation. Recent stock market volatility and selling could very well be just the beginning-there could be significant more downside to come. Numerous warning signs are being seen, from current action in emerging markets to the copper market. Copper is often considered a barometer of overall economic activity, and... Continue Reading

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A Bottom May Be Near

The gold market has not seen a lot of upside in recent months, and during that time investors have become increasingly bearish on the metal. The market has had a lot of headwinds to deal with including rising stocks, a stronger dollar, increasing interest rates and strong investor appetite for risk. Stocks have remained stubbornly strong, while the dollar has seen significant upside as inflation and interest rate expectations have increased. Markets do not typically move in one direction or the other indefinitely, however, and... Continue Reading

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Rates May Go Up Only to Come Right Back Down

With the U.S. and global economies on more solid footing, the Fed has been raising interest rates as it attempts to normalize monetary policy. Other central banks, such as the ECB, are also looking to end stimulus measures and begin the process of removing monetary stimulus through low rates, QE or both. As central banks remove the punchbowl, however, markets will be left to stand on their own two feet. This could be compared to stock markets continuing to play the game, but now without... Continue Reading

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One Step Closer to an All out Trade War

Stocks are taking it on the chin in early action Tuesday, with the Dow Jones at one point in early action trading lower by over 400 points. The ongoing escalation in trade relations between the U.S. and China has set the tone for the day, and investors appear to be increasingly aware of the risks that a full-blown trade war could pose. In the latest salvo, U.S. President Donald Trump has said he would consider additional tariffs on another $200 billion worth of Chinese goods... Continue Reading

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The Fed May be the Biggest Risk to the Stock Market

The stock market has a number of issues to contend with currently if it is to keep moving higher and continue the bull market that began nearly a decade ago. Geopolitical risks-including a potential trade war and even armed conflicts in more than one location-are weighing on market sentiment. Of all of the current risks the stock market may face, however, the biggest potential threat to the equities market could be the Fed. The central bank has already begun to take steps to normalize monetary... Continue Reading

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