Tag Archive: china

Recession With or Without A Deal

The ongoing U.S./China trade war has had a significant impact on the economies of both countries. The war on trade has seen several stages of escalation in recent months, and thus far, the two aides still appear to be quite far apart when it comes to making some type of long-term agreement. Talks are set to resume next month, and that news has stock markets moving higher as risk aversion abates. Some key economic indicators have already begun showing some significant cracks. Recent manufacturing data,... Continue Reading

Fed Still on Track to Cut

The highly anticipated jobs report for August showed the U.S. added just 130,000 jobs, a significant downside miss from expectations for 150,000 new jobs added. The unemployment rate was steady at 3.7 percent. This figure looks especially weak compared to the ADP employment report released earlier in the week, which showed a gain of 195,000 jobs when market expectations were looking for 140,000 jobs. The jobs data falls into the camp of the policy doves who want to see further rate cuts. The Fed will... Continue Reading

Appetite For Risk

The stock market has put together a decent run over the past week as investor appetite for risk has seen an uptick. Some optimistic commentary about the ongoing U.S./China trade war is the primary catalyst for equity gains this week, and investors are hoping that some significant progress may be made at the negotiating table in the weeks ahead. The stock market has a tendency to turn on a dime, however, and any negative developments concerning the trade war could send stocks sharply lower again... Continue Reading

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U.S. Hardline Stance May Cause Dominos To Fall

The current state of geopolitics and the global economy warrant caution. Stocks are moving slightly higher in early action on Monday as the markets seem to be pinning their hopes on the Fed and another series of rate cuts. The Fed will be meeting this week, and although no action is expected on Wednesday, the central bank could lay the groundwork for the first rate cut in over 10 years next month. There are currently several issues at work, however, that could potentially set off... Continue Reading

Risk Aversion Accelerates – This Could Be It

The gold market is finally seeing some significant upside as risk aversion accelerates. The metal has now broken out of its recent trading range and could potentially set its sights on a new high for the year in the weeks ahead. There are numerous issues behind the recent ascent, and many of these issues could potentially fuel the next major global recession. The ongoing U.S./China trade war appears poised to continue. After a deal was reported to be close in recent weeks, both sides have... Continue Reading

The Only True Safe Haven

Just because the gold market has had limited upside in recent months does not mean that investors won’t turn to the metal if things get dicey. The ongoing U.S./China trade war has taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks, and the war over trade could potentially take much longer to resolve than previously anticipated. Last week, Both sides pushed away from the negotiating table. The U.S. raised tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent. China, as expected,... Continue Reading

Central Bank Demand for Gold Surging

Central bank demand for gold reportedly hit the highest levels in 2018 since the end of the Bretton Woods system of dollar convertibility in 1971. With some analysts referring to gold as some type of meaningless relic, this begs the question of why the biggest financial institutions on the planet are looking to acquire even more gold. Store of Value Gold has a very long history as a reliable store of wealth and value. In the post-Bretton Woods era and without a return to some... Continue Reading

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The Mueller Report Has Come and Gone… Now What?

The highly anticipated Mueller report has now come and gone. What could have resulted in significant market volatility and a major sell-off has ended up more like a whimper, having little to no impact on markets today. To be clear, however, the report could lead to additional political fighting as Democrats seek to see and release the full report and as other investigations continue. With the special counsel investigation now over, however, investors may again focus their attention elsewhere. The inverted yield curve caught the... Continue Reading

Leading Indicators Decline

According to a report by marketwatch.com, leading indicators declined by .1% in December in what may be viewed as another sign of a slowing U.S. economy. Of note is the fact that the index fell in two of the final three months of 2018, quite possibly due to the current slowdown gathering steam. The latest disappointing economic report is just another in what has seemingly become the trend of late. Several key components of the economy, especially in the manufacturing sector, have been showing weakness... Continue Reading

Risk is to the Upside

When it comes to managing investments, risk management is everything. Knowing the potential risk on any position is imperative to success. Risk is not always to the downside, however, and oftentimes markets will exhibit behavior that warrants upside risk. The gold market may currently be displaying such upside risk. After spending much of 2018 probing the recent lows, the selling pressure eventually began to run dry. Try and try as they might, the bears were simply unable to push prices to significant new lows. In... Continue Reading