Tag Archive: fiscal policy

Three Reasons Another Recession is Inevitable

Some analysts in recent months have suggested that the U.S. could be headed for another recession. The ongoing U.S./China trade war, fading effects from tax cuts and government spending and an aging expansion are just a few of the reasons cited. Other analysts have suggested that recent economic weakness and market declines are normal and simply some bumps in the road. Whether the next recession hits this year, next or in the next few years, it will arrive. Here are three simple reasons that a... Continue Reading

Is the EU Headed For More Trouble?

Just a few years back, the EU, and Greece specifically, dominated the financial media as the nation headed for a major default and bankruptcy. Sovereign debt issues have been an area of focus in the region for some time, and there has been ongoing discussions about the health of the union for years. Those discussions are likely to pick up in pace once again, as recent developments in Italy are a major cause for concern. The country is headed for new elections later in the... Continue Reading

The Calm before the Storm?

Five days into the Donald Trump Presidency, the Dow is flirting with the 20,000 level, gold is near two month highs and the dollar remains well off of its post-election highs. Although the “Trump” rally has slowed in recent days, it may simply be a case of investors taking a wait-and-see approach. Thus far, Trump has signed orders to proceed with a major oil pipeline and pulled the U.S. out of a Pacific trade group. It has been reported that Trump will sign executive orders... Continue Reading

Latest Fed Minutes Most Hawkish In Years-Or Are They?

Last week, investors got the latest release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Although at first glance the minutes appeared to be considerably more hawkish, the central bank did also cite some risk it sees in the New Year. While it can also be a matter of interpretation to a degree, upon a closer examination of the minutes the Fed still seems rather cautious. The central bank voted to raise rates last month for just the second time in a decade, and while the Fed now... Continue Reading

Could Stocks Top on January 20th?

It’s no secret that stocks have been on a ferocious run to the upside since the Presidential election victory by Donald Trump. The notion of looser regulation, tax cuts and massive fiscal stimulus has sent stocks sharply higher, especially banks’. Could the rally over the last several weeks prove to be a case of buy the rumor sell the fact? Some analysts appear to think so… In a recent article from Marketwatch.com, analysts from Morgan Stanley voiced some concerns that the rally in equities has... Continue Reading

Gold Will Shine Again

As the year winds down, and as trading volumes decline, many key markets are likely right at or near levels where they will finish out 2016. Although stocks have had a great several weeks, other asset classes, such as gold and silver, have not performed as well. Although risk assets have been moving higher on the notion of increased spending and tax cuts, much remains to be seen that could determine how markets might perform in the New Year. We believe that gold and silver... Continue Reading

Don’t Get Distracted by all of the Noise

Last week marked the first time the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates in a year, and only the second time it has done so in a decade. Although the Fed did not surprise markets at all implementing a rate hike of 25bps, the central bank did appear to sound considerably more hawkish than markets had expected. Given the fact that a quarter point rate hike by the Fed was pretty much a foregone conclusion, investors turned their attention to the central bank’s plans for... Continue Reading

Don’t Be Fooled

Following what many considered to be a long-shot victory by Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump, markets have been moving higher after some initial volatility. The dollar index is approaching 14 year highs, while the Dow Jones has been on a record-setting spree. Interest rates have been on the rise, as bonds and notes were sold heavily. Is this truly the beginning of a new era? In our view, the answer is perhaps yes, but probably no. While things may be looking better here in the... Continue Reading

What if Central Banks Run out of Ammo?

The average person has likely become all-too familiar with various terms used to describe the state of many monetary policies around the globe. Phrases like low interest rates, zero interest rates, negative interest rates, bond purchases and yield curve have become quite familiar in recent years as global central banks took steps to battle deflationary forces and a potential economic collapse. Whether or not these policy tools have really been effective remains the subject of debate. Although the U.S. has ended its QE program, many... Continue Reading