Tag Archive: recession

Risk Aversion Accelerates – This Could Be It

The gold market is finally seeing some significant upside as risk aversion accelerates. The metal has now broken out of its recent trading range and could potentially set its sights on a new high for the year in the weeks ahead. There are numerous issues behind the recent ascent, and many of these issues could potentially fuel the next major global recession. The ongoing U.S./China trade war appears poised to continue. After a deal was reported to be close in recent weeks, both sides have... Continue Reading

Key Divergences Point to Higher Gold

Following some recent declines, the gold market has not accomplished much thus far in 2019. Although many of the so-called “experts” may pounce on this fact, we see it as a significant positive for the market. Not only is it a positive, but it could potentially be indicative of a major rally on the horizon. Here’s why we can count on gold resilience: Gold has endured a stronger dollar: Typically, the dollar and gold have a negative correlation. That is to say that when the... Continue Reading

Why the Dollar Is Overvalued

The U.S. dollar has been on the stronger side of the ledger in recent months. There are numerous factors at work that have kept the greenback moving higher, including strong U.S.  economic data and weakness in other regions. Creeping Weakness Affecting the Dollar Recent months have seen some significant weakness creep into the U.S. data stream, however, and China has been reporting some serious weakness of its own. The dollar has likely enjoyed the benefits of weaker growth in emerging markets and the fear of... Continue Reading

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Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact

Stock markets have recently put together an impressive string of gains that has taken the benchmark S&P 500 above previous resistance. Stocks could potentially be headed for an attempt at fresh all-time highs as volatility continues to decline. And why shouldn’t they? The Fed has become increasingly dovish; a U.S./China trade deal may be getting close, and jobless claims are at the lowest level in 50 years. Against this positive backdrop for stocks, however, lurk a number of issues that could derail risk assets in... Continue Reading

The Mueller Report Has Come and Gone… Now What?

The highly anticipated Mueller report has now come and gone. What could have resulted in significant market volatility and a major sell-off has ended up more like a whimper, having little to no impact on markets today. To be clear, however, the report could lead to additional political fighting as Democrats seek to see and release the full report and as other investigations continue. With the special counsel investigation now over, however, investors may again focus their attention elsewhere. The inverted yield curve caught the... Continue Reading

How About a Quick 18% Drop in Stocks?

Some analysts have been sounding the alarm bells for a drop in stocks for some time now. Although equities have not thus far fallen apart as some had suggested, the situation has become increasingly cautious. Another analyst recently came out with a call for an 18% drop in stocks. This, however, is one analyst you may want to listen to. His name is Gary Shilling, and he has a knack for calling turning points in the economy. Having called major turns in the 60s, then... Continue Reading

More Symptoms of Economic Trouble

Today, the Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing purchasing managers index fell in February to the lowest level since November 2016. Not coincidentally, it is not the only economic indicator to decline to the lowest levels since that time. Could this mean more symptoms of economic trouble? Of course, November 2016 was when Donald J. Trump was elected President in a victory that caught many off-guard. Since he has been in office, Trump has enacted significant legislation. His administration has performed significant deregulation,... Continue Reading

Significant Signs of Strength

There are significant signs of strength for gold showing lately. The gold market is higher today, gaining over $4.00/oz. Although that itself may not be noteworthy, it is interesting that gold is climbing today despite some serious headwinds that might normally weigh on the metal. The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 350 points in early action today. There has reportedly been some solid progress made in the U.S./China trade negotiations that took place in Beijing this week. Officials appear to have at... Continue Reading

What if Stocks Declined by 50% or More?

Recent stock market volatility and declines could be a taste of things to come. The market has been moving higher for a decade now on the back of ultra-low rates and easy money. That era is coming to an end, however, and stocks could be in for quite the shock as monetary policy tightens. The ultra-low rate policies of central banks have allowed corporations to invest, expand and hire. As the cost of capital increases, however, these wheels are likely to grind to a halt.... Continue Reading

It’s Not Too Late

Stocks are continuing their recent plunge today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down over 600 points in mid-day trade. Market volatility, as measured by the CBOE’s VIX index, is spiking today to the mid-20s and investors appear to be getting panicky as no bottom has yet been found. The recent selling in equities could, however, be just the tip of the iceberg and a far more significant decline could be seen in the weeks and months ahead. Despite some recent positive commentary on the... Continue Reading